On Nov. 14, 2026, CME FedWatch data showed futures traders assigning an 88.5% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the Dec. 8–9 meeting and 11.5% to a 50-basis-point increase. Kalshi and Polymarket put the chance of a 25-basis-point increase at 89% and 88%, respectively. These are market expectations, not a Fed decision; the platforms use different methods and contracts, and the Fed had not announced its December decision.
Bitcoin fell to $65,020 on Bitstamp that day before recovering modestly. The source says its decline cannot be attributed solely to expectations about Fed rates, citing other possible factors including uncertainty over Strategy’s MSCI index listing and ETF outflows.
