Kalshi’s contract on a U.S. Treasury bitcoin purchase by Jan. 1, 2028 showed 21% ask odds, while a contract covering the rest of 2026 showed 2%. The market resolves only if the Treasury announces a completed purchase for a government-held reserve; speeches, studies and executive orders do not count. The 2028 contract’s last trade later stood at 11%, and only about 1,600 contracts had traded across the two deadlines, making the prices sensitive to small trades.
Market tracker Octagon said the order behind the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bars open-market purchases and that a bill mandating purchases has not been enacted. In a separate Kalshi market, traders priced a bitcoin dip below $77,500 before Oct. 31 at about 44%.
