Gold Nears Bear Market as Bitcoin Consolidates Amid Economic Pressures
- Gold is down nearly 20% from its January all-time high, approaching a technical bear market.
- Since the start of the Middle East war in late February, gold prices have decreased by approximately 10%.
- Interest rate cuts are now expected to be delayed until December 2026, maintaining a restrictive policy environment.
- Gold is trading near historical peak levels adjusted for M2 money supply, similar to prices seen in the past during significant economic events.
- Bitcoin remains about 40% below its October high but is retesting its highs on a liquidity-adjusted basis.
The decline in gold prices amidst geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices highlights shifting market dynamics that challenge its role as a safe haven asset. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to consolidate, reflecting historical patterns where it typically surpasses prior peaks when adjusted for money supply.
With gold falling nearly $200 from its peak and Bitcoin testing previous highs, both assets are navigating complex macroeconomic conditions that impact their valuations significantly.
