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Are Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns becoming obsolete?

Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026 after a roughly 4% decline in October 2025, according to CoinGlass data. The back-to-back losses challenge October’s reputation for gains, but analysts said two years are not enough to dismiss the seasonal pattern.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $515 million in net outflows in October. Analysts pointed to institutional investment, economic conditions and broader market cycles as factors in Bitcoin’s performance, but Kaiko researcher Andrew Yang cautioned that spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, are too recent to assess.

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