Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Influenced by Politics and Liquidity
- Markus Thielen from 10x Research asserts that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact but is now influenced more by US elections and liquidity than halving events.
- Historical peaks in Bitcoin occurred in Q4 of the years 2013, 2017, and 2021, aligning with political cycles rather than halving schedules.
- Following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum due to cautious institutional investors and tightening liquidity conditions.
- Capital inflows into Bitcoin have decreased compared to last year, limiting potential for significant price increases.
- Thielen suggests that market participants should focus on political catalysts instead of relying solely on halving events for investment timing.
The shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics highlights the importance of external factors like political events and monetary policy over traditional supply mechanisms such as Bitcoin Halving. This change indicates a consolidation phase for Bitcoin unless liquidity improves significantly.
Currently, without a clear increase in capital inflows, Bitcoin may remain stagnant rather than experiencing a new rally as seen in previous cycles.(Source)
