Current Bitcoin Cycle Shows Significant Weakness Compared to Previous Halvings
- The all-time high for Bitcoin (BTC) reached over $125,000 on October 5, 2025, just a 97% increase from the halving price of around $63,000 in April.
- Bitcoin’s price surged by approximately 9,294% during the halving cycle in 2012 and 2,950% in the cycle of 2016.
- The current cycle’s volatility has decreased significantly, with the Bitcoin Volatility Index peaking at only 3.11%, compared to a spike of 9.64% in April 2020.
- Critics argue that BTC’s performance is skewed due to an all-time high above $70,000 achieved one month before the April halving.
- Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s drawdowns have become less severe, with a decline of just over 50% from its recent peak.
Alex Thorn from Galaxy noted that this fourth cycle is “dramatically” underperforming compared to earlier cycles, raising questions about future market dynamics and influences beyond traditional halving events.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $74,703, reflecting an increase of nearly 5% over the past week amid ongoing discussions about its market behavior.(Source)
