Bitcoin Peak Delayed Until 2026

Global Economy and Bitcoin: Business Cycle Insights

• Analyst Tomas describes a “short and shallow” business cycle from 2023 to early 2025.
• The Global Economy Index (GEI) was underwhelming in 2023-2024, indicating a cycle trough by early 2025.
• The GEI led US Manufacturing PMI data before the pandemic, suggesting a new cycle peaking around late 2026/2027.
• S&P 500 recently entered negative year-over-year territory, typical of end-of-cycle behavior.
• Bitcoin’s volatility deviates from traditional cycles, potentially due to ETFs and institutional interest.

The Global Economy Index suggests the start of a new business cycle expected to peak in late 2026/2027. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price action challenges its historical four-year halving cycle theory. At press time, BTC traded at $79,428.