China Mediates Hormuz Crisis Ceasefire Odds

China’s Mediation in Hormuz Crisis Influences US-Iran Ceasefire Odds

• China is prepared to mediate the Hormuz crisis, impacting US-Iran ceasefire odds.
• The probability of a ceasefire by April 30 has increased to 38.5%, up from 36% the previous day.
• The market anticipates significant developments between April 15 and April 30, with a potential 20-point jump in odds.
• The May 31 market shows optimism for resolution, with a 55.5% YES probability.
• Total trading volume across these markets reached $1,365,780 in USDC today.

The involvement of China could steer the focus towards diplomatic solutions in the Hormuz crisis, influencing ceasefire probabilities between the US and Iran. The current market trends indicate an increased likelihood of resolution by late April or May.