China Pressures Iran for US Ceasefire

China Pushes for US-Iran Ceasefire Amid Market Certainty

• Chinese officials have encouraged Iran to pursue a ceasefire with the US.
• The market probability for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 has surged to 99.6% YES, up from 14% in just one day.
• The April 15 market experienced a significant increase, jumping from 67% to 90%, with $1.68M in USDC traded.
• Markets for ceasefires by April 30 and May 31 both stand at 99.5% YES, with a combined trading volume of $13.7M face value and $4.5M in real USDC.
• The market predicting US forces entering Iran by April 30 remains at a high certainty of 99.8% YES, despite de-escalation signals, with daily trading volume reaching $68.4M in USDC.

China’s diplomatic efforts coincide with near-certain market predictions of a US-Iran ceasefire by mid-April, reflecting strong trader consensus on temporary de-escalation despite ongoing tensions.