Fed Chair Powell Extends Term Impacting Warsh

Jerome Powell’s Fed Chair Term and Market Predictions

• The probability of Jerome Powell exiting as Fed Chair by May 14 increased to 4% from 2%.
• The May 15 contract saw a significant jump to 74% YES from 26%, indicating expectations of a specific event around that date.
• The May 31 odds rose to 97% YES, up from 58% a week ago, showing strong trader confidence in Powell’s departure by then.
• Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15 remains steady at 92%, unaffected by Powell’s timeline.
• The “Powell Out” contracts traded $25,950 in daily USDC, with $3,604 moving the May 14 market by five points, highlighting liquidity differences.

Market movements suggest traders anticipate Jerome Powell’s potential exit around mid-May, impacting the confirmation timeline for Kevin Warsh.