Iran Downs US Jet CENTCOM Denies

Iran Claims US Jet Downed; CENTCOM Denies, Tensions Rise

• Iran claims to have shot down a U.S. fighter jet, but CENTCOM confirms all U.S. jets are accounted for.
• The probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 increased from 55% to 60.5% YES.
• The market reaction saw the April 30 sub-market rise by 5.5 percentage points due to escalation fears.
• The December 31 sub-market remains stable at a 70% YES probability, indicating longer-term expectations for ground operations.
• A combined daily trading volume of $2.8M in USDC was recorded, with $326K needed to shift the April market by five points.

The increase in the probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April reflects heightened tensions despite CENTCOM’s denial of Iran’s claims about downing a U.S. jet.