Iran Minister Survives Assassination Wife Killed

Iranian Foreign Minister Survives Assassination Attempt; Wife Killed

• Iran’s foreign minister was critically injured in an assassination attempt at his home, resulting in his wife’s death.
• The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has decreased to 10% from 12% yesterday and 22% last week.
• The attack on Kamal Kharazi follows the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid Operation Epic Fury, a U.S.-Israel military campaign.
• Market odds have steadily declined despite the assassination attempt, with daily trading volume at $124,433 in USDC.
• A YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, indicating a potential 10x return for traders betting on this outcome.

The assassination attempt on Iran’s foreign minister complicates the political situation but has not significantly shifted market expectations of regime collapse. The probability of a regime fall by June 30 is now at 10%, reflecting tempered market reactions despite recent events.