Iran Oil Shut-Ins Loom in 15 Days

Iran Faces Imminent Oil Industry Shutdown Amid Sanctions and War Damage

• Iran’s oil industry faces a complete shutdown in 15 days due to sanctions and war damage.
• The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has increased to 9%, up from 6% in the past 24 hours.
• The market for a regime fall by April 30 remains low at 0.9%, indicating minimal expectation of an immediate collapse.
• Odds of a ceasefire announcement by April 30 have decreased significantly from 32% to 14.5%.
• The market trades $33,064 daily in USDC, requiring $16,963 to shift June odds by five points, reflecting cautious interest.

The impending shutdown of Iran’s oil industry is increasing economic pressure on the regime, with traders recalibrating risks as the likelihood of regime instability grows. The potential for internal dissent could further impact market sentiment.