Iran President Denies Hostility Amid Conflict

Iranian President Softens Rhetoric Amid 2026 Conflict

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denies hostility toward Americans, softening his rhetoric.
• The likelihood of a ceasefire by April 7 has decreased to 8% from last week’s 28%.
• April 15 market odds show a slight increase to 20%, indicating some optimism for progress.
• Longer-term odds for a ceasefire rise: April 30 at 38% and May 31 at 56%.
• The market sees $1.3M in daily USDC trading, with $48K needed to shift April 7 odds by five points.

The market remains bearish on an early ceasefire, with only an 8% chance by April 7. However, longer-term prospects improve, with confidence rising towards the end of April and into May.