Iran Protests Surge Amid High Casualties

Iran Protests Lead to High Casualties and Market Uncertainty

• The probability of Iran having no head of state by the end of 2026 is at 4.9%, slightly decreased from 5%.
• The chance of a leadership change in Iran by December 31 is now at 31.5%, down from 32%.
• The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling remains stable at 16.5%.
• Recent protests, called “Khizesh 1404,” resulted in severe clashes, with official reports citing over 3,117 casualties.
• Opposition sources claim up to 43,000 fatalities during these demonstrations, which are the largest since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Prediction markets reflect moderate impacts from recent large-scale protests in Iran, with probabilities for leadership change and regime fall showing slight adjustments. The stability in the leadership status market suggests some confidence in the current regime’s control despite ongoing unrest and international criticism.