Iran Strikes Tanker Tensions Surge Hormuz

Iran Strikes Tanker Off Doha Amid Rising Tensions in Strait of Hormuz

• The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands has decreased, with market pricing showing a decline.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 15 is now at a low probability of 1.5% YES.
• The perceived risk of regime change in Iran before 2027 has slightly increased to 16.5% YES.
• An Iranian strike on a tanker off Doha followed an attempted breach of the Hormuz blockade by a Qatari ship.
• This incident is part of ongoing tensions since the US-Israel air war against Iran began in February 2026.

The recent escalation involving an Iranian strike on a tanker near Doha has led to decreased market confidence in Trump agreeing to Iranian demands and reduced expectations for normalizing Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15. The risk of regime change in Iran shows a slight increase, reflecting heightened regional instability.