Iran Supreme Leader Ouster Odds Surge 65%

Prediction Markets Anticipate Iran’s Supreme Leader Exit by 2026

• Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi estimate over 65% odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaving office by the end of 2026.
• Polymarket shows a rise in odds from 30% to nearly 65% for Khamenei’s exit by December 31, with varying probabilities for earlier dates in 2026.
• Kalshi reports a similar increase to 66% probability for Khamenei’s departure before 2027.
• Iran faces severe economic challenges, including a reported inflation rate of 45% and a collapsing rial.
• The country has experienced significant unrest, with hundreds reportedly killed and thousands arrested amid nationwide protests.

Prediction markets indicate a significant likelihood of Iran’s Supreme Leader stepping down by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing economic turmoil and social unrest.