Iran Tensions Escalate Amid Hormuz Blockade

Trump Comments Indicate US-Iran Tensions Amid Strait of Hormuz Blockade

• The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is priced at 7.5% for a YES outcome, down from 8% last week.
• The April 30, 2026 market remains stable at a mere 0.1% for YES.
• Former President Trump hinted at potential military action against Iran but did not confirm any plans.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to US naval actions, impacting global oil and gas supplies.
• Tensions persist despite a ceasefire since April 8 following Operation Epic Fury.

The likelihood of the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, has slightly decreased to a market price of 7.5%, reflecting minimal change in perceived risk despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.