Iran Threatens EU Bases Amid Tensions

Iran Threatens European Bases Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

• The probability of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 is at 2.6%, down from 3% in the last 24 hours.
• The likelihood of Iran taking military action against its neighbors by April 30, 2026, remains at a high 100% YES probability.
• Kayhan’s editor-in-chief, Hossein Shariatmadari, stated that Iran could target European countries if they allow US military operations from their bases.
• Iran has previously targeted locations like a UK base in Cyprus and US-linked facilities in the Gulf.
• European nations hosting US or NATO infrastructure are enhancing security measures due to increased threats.

The market reflects moderate concern over Iranian regime stability with a slight decrease to a 2.6% probability of regime change, while military action against neighbors is perceived as highly likely at a consistent 100% YES probability.