Oman Iran Talks Impact Ceasefire Odds

Oman and Iran Discuss Strait of Hormuz Transit amid Ceasefire Doubts

• Oman and Iran met to ensure smooth transit through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating diplomatic engagement.
• The US-Iran ceasefire probability for April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
• The April 30 market at 18% YES saw a recent 2-point spike, suggesting medium-term optimism.
• USDC traded in these markets totaled $430,773 over the past day, with low liquidity indicated by $12,367 required to move the April 7 market by five points.

This meeting between Oman and Iran signals potential de-escalation but lacks direct military involvement from the US or Iran. The market reflects skepticism about immediate breakthroughs but shows some optimism for longer-term resolution.