Pakistan Diplomacy Lowers US-Iran Ceasefire Odds

Warsh’s Testimony Influences Treasury Yields and Fed Rate Cut Odds

• Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony led to a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields.
• The odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut after the April meeting increased from 0% to 0.2% YES on Polymarket.
• Warsh emphasized inflation control and Federal Reserve independence, impacting market expectations for rate cuts.
• The trading volume for the 25 bps market is $3,074 USDC, with moderate liquidity requiring $5,326 to move the price by 5 points.
• The likelihood of a near-term rate cut appears reduced due to rising Treasury yields and Warsh’s hawkish stance.

Kevin Warsh’s testimony has influenced market dynamics, increasing the odds of a Fed rate cut after April. However, his emphasis on inflation control suggests a reduced likelihood of immediate cuts. Market participants should monitor upcoming statements from Powell and other FOMC members for further insights.