US Bypasses Congress for $8.6B Arms

US Approves $8.6B Arms Sales Amid Iran Tensions

• The Trump administration approved $8.6 billion in military sales to Middle Eastern allies, bypassing congressional review.
• This decision was justified as a response to an emergency situation by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• The arms sale follows joint US-Israel military escalations against Iran since February 2026.
• Market pricing for diplomatic meetings with Iran is at 0.1% YES, down from 2% a week ago.
• The probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium is at 8.5% YES.

The approval of significant arms sales without congressional oversight aligns with scenarios suggesting increased military actions against Iran. Current market pricing reflects a low probability of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran, with the likelihood of obtaining Iranian enriched uranium at 8.5%.