US Forces Entry Odds Surge to 86.5%

U.S. Forces Recover F-15E Crew in Iran, Odds for Entry Surge

• U.S. forces have successfully recovered a crew member from a downed F-15E inside Iranian territory, confirming ground operations.
• The probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 has risen to 86.5%, up from 62% the previous day.
• The market for April 30 surged with odds increasing by 24 points within 24 hours; the highest spike was 4 points at 2:14 PM.
• The December 31 odds also increased to 90.5%, up from 72% the day before, indicating expectations for sustained ground presence.
• The market’s USDC volume over the past 24 hours was $5,069,224, reflecting strong trader engagement.

This incident increases the likelihood of U.S. forces entering Iran, with prediction markets showing an increase in odds and significant trading activity.