US Iran Ceasefire Odds Plunge 18%

Operation Epic Fury Escalates, Reducing Ceasefire Odds

• The probability of a ceasefire by April 7 is at 8.5% YES, down from 10% the previous day.
• The April 15 ceasefire market shows an 18.5% YES probability, a decrease from 20%.
• April 30 sees a higher expectation of de-escalation with a 38.5% YES probability.
• $1,365,780 USDC was traded in ceasefire markets over the past day; the largest move was a four-point rise in the April 30 market.
• The likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April 30 stands at 52.5% YES.

Operation Epic Fury has intensified conflict and reduced the odds of an imminent ceasefire. Market activity is high, with significant trading volumes and shifting probabilities indicating traders’ skepticism about quick diplomatic resolutions.