Former Meet the Press moderator Chuck Todd is set to host the NEXTPredict summit in New York on October 22 and 23, ahead of the November 3 midterm vote. He says he wants to examine how pollsters and prediction markets affect each other and whether the markets are healthy for politics.
Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined monthly trading volume rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, mostly on sports, according to Pew Research Center. Politics accounted for a much smaller share, and Anti-Corruption Data Collective research found that a $3,500 bet could move prices by five cents or more in 97% of midterm-related markets. A federal framework under which election contracts would not count as gaming remains a proposal, not an approved rule.
