Prediction Markets Signal Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Disruption
- Prediction markets place only a 28% chance that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by April 30.
- Iran imposed crypto tolls of about $1 per barrel on tankers, collecting up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, Chinese yuan, and USDT.
- The Myriad platform indicates a 63.2% chance that Brent crude oil prices will rise to $120 per barrel.
- Traffic through the strait remains below 5% of pre-war levels despite a ceasefire announced on April 8.
- Crypto traders are actively engaging with oil-linked futures, with platforms like Hyperliquid processing significant volumes during peak tensions.
Despite a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., prediction markets show low confidence in a quick recovery for shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing security concerns and imposed crypto tolls by Iran’s IRGC. Traders anticipate prolonged instability with higher oil prices expected into late May or June.
The economic impact is significant, as the Strait handles about 20% of global oil flow, affecting global GDP growth projections for Q2 2026. (Source)
