Bernstein Forecasts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035
- Prediction market volume is projected to reach $10 trillion annually by 2035, a significant increase from the estimated $410 billion in volume for 2026.
- Financial-asset contracts, including crypto, stocks, and commodities, are expected to grow from making up 12% of the market in 2025 to dominating at nearly half (49%) by 2035.
- The share of sports-related trading is anticipated to decline from comprising the majority at 61% in 2025 to just over a third (38%) by the same year.
- Kalshi’s platform saw its crypto trading volume jump from under %5 in January to about %20 by August, while commodity trading surged to $590 million so far in the year.
Bernstein’s revised prediction highlights an anticipated exponential growth in prediction markets, driven largely by financial-asset contracts overtaking sports as the dominant category. This shift reflects an evolving landscape where institutional participation and regulatory clarity are expected to play crucial roles.
The forecast underscores a potential transformation within prediction markets, with financial assets poised to capture a larger share of trading volume than traditional sports wagers. (Source)
