Recession Fears Surge Amid Trump Tariffs

U.S. Recession Odds Increase Following Trump’s Tariff Announcement

• Polymarket predicts a 50% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2025.
• Kalshi estimates the likelihood of a recession at 56%.
• Myriad Markets shows a 53.6% probability of recession.
• The White House announced a 10% blanket tariff on trading partners.
• The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell nearly 6% and 5%, respectively, following the announcement.

Prediction markets have increased the odds of a U.S. recession after President Trump announced new tariffs, with Polymarket and Kalshi estimating over a 50% chance by the end of 2025.