Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, securing a fourth term. Before the vote, Polymarket priced Lula’s chance of winning at about 20% and Bolsonaro’s at 80%. A 20% chance still meant a Lula victory was possible, analyst Nolan cautioned.
A Polymarket trader blamed retail traders for keeping Bolsonaro’s odds high, but Nolan warned against treating that as the sole explanation. Nolan and TxODDS chief Einar Knobel pointed instead to Brazil’s ban on prediction markets; Knobel said trading was largely driven by people outside the country and that liquidity was relatively thin. These were their explanations for the pricing, not established causes.
