CLARITY Act Faces Uncertain Future with Low Passage Odds
- Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 15% chance of being enacted by the end of 2026.
- Kalshi estimates a 30% to 50% probability for passage before January 2028.
- A Senate cloture motion is scheduled for September, requiring bipartisan support to proceed.
- The House-passed bill aims to divide federal responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, setting rules for exchanges and brokers.
The CLARITY Act seeks to establish national rules for crypto trading and market oversight but faces skepticism in prediction markets regarding its passage by the end of this year. A key procedural vote in the Senate is set for mid-September, which will test bipartisan support for advancing the bill.
Despite some legislative progress, prediction markets like Polymarket remain doubtful about the CLARITY Act becoming law in the near term, reflecting broader uncertainty over its future enactment. (Source)
