ARK Invest’s updated Tesla valuation, published Oct. 19, forecasts a share price of about $4,400 in 2031. In its illustrative base case, ARK expects robotaxis to account for about 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value, with roughly 8.1 million robotaxis and $753 billion in annual ride-hailing net revenue by 2031.
The forecast also projects $212 billion in Optimus revenue and includes share dilution from Elon Musk’s stock-based compensation. ARK’s roughly $3,300 bear and $5,000 bull estimates are the model’s 25th and 75th percentiles, not limits on possible prices. Regulatory delays and slower robotaxi expansion could disrupt the forecast.
