Crypto’s Trajectory Hinges on Government Shutdown Resolution
- A widely followed macro roadmap suggests a cautious stance until the US government shutdown is resolved.
- The resolution of the shutdown is expected to be bullish for risk assets, potentially boosting Bitcoin by +5% or more within two days.
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10 is tagged as “hawkish,” with most officials favoring a pause not currently priced in by markets.
- A potential data vacuum due to the shutdown could lead to increased event risk around economic data releases, particularly nonfarm payrolls on December 5.
- Tax loss selling in crypto throughout December is characterized as bearish, mainly affecting the last two weeks of the month.
The macro roadmap outlines key events that may influence crypto markets through December and into early next year, emphasizing the impact of policy decisions and tax-related flows on market dynamics. The resolution of the US government shutdown is anticipated to trigger a short-term rally in risk assets like Bitcoin.
With an ongoing data vacuum and potential changes in monetary policy, volatility could increase around key economic indicators such as nonfarm payrolls, influencing crypto’s trajectory through year-end. Source
