CME Fedwatch Tool Signals Possible September Rate Hike
- CME’s Fedwatch tool indicates a 57% chance of a federal funds rate hike on September 16, up from just 39.9% on August 21.
- Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi show a nearly even split, with a Fed hold at approximately 52% and a hike at about 48%.
- Warsh highlighted persistent inflation, with the PCE inflation gauge at 3.7%, as traders anticipate the Fed’s decision.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has traders divided, with CME futures suggesting a higher likelihood of a rate hike compared to prediction markets that lean slightly towards holding rates steady.
With inflation remaining above the Fed’s target and economic indicators showing growth, the decision remains uncertain as both sides weigh in heavily on potential outcomes for mid-September. (Source)
