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Prediction Markets Miss Lula’s Brazil Runoff Win

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to the source, securing a fourth term after trailing in the first round. With 99.99% of votes counted, Lula had 51.78% and Bolsonaro 48.22%.

Polymarket had given Bolsonaro an 80% chance of winning the runoff before results began to appear. After Lula’s victory was announced, a perpetual contract linked to the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell more than 22% on Hyperliquid; the source does not say the ETF itself fell by that amount.

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