Polymarket gave Gadi Eisenkot roughly a 55%–56% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister after the October 27, 2026 election, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%. The market concerns who is officially appointed and sworn in after the election, not simply which bloc wins the vote; its rules also cover an early election.
Traditional polls cited in the excerpt put Eisenkot’s bloc six seats ahead of Netanyahu’s but show no party winning a majority on its own, so Eisenkot would need a coalition. The Israel Democracy Institute urged election regulators to restrict publication of betting odds before voting.
