U.S. Government Set for Partial Shutdown Amid Funding Dispute
- The U.S. government will partially shut down at midnight ET, as the House is out of session until Monday.
- Senate voted on a funding package, but it requires House approval to take effect.
- Prediction market contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi show an increasing likelihood of the shutdown, with odds reaching up to 93%.
- A Polymarket contract indicates a partial shutdown qualifies as a shutdown if announced by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM).
- Bettors predict the shutdown could last more than two days, with over a 90% chance reflected in current contracts.
This partial shutdown differs from previous ones, which were prolonged and caused significant disruptions for federal employees. The importance of specificity in prediction markets is highlighted by varying definitions of what constitutes a government shutdown.
As it stands, there is a reported chance of over 90% that the government will remain closed for more than two days due to the ongoing funding dispute.(Source)
