Polymarket Sees $600 Million in Bets Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict
- The prediction market Polymarket saw over $600 million in trading volume related to the U.S.-Iran conflict within days of strikes initiated by the U.S. and Israel.
- The largest market, “US strikes Iran by…?”, has recorded a total volume of $529 million since December, with $89.6 million traded on February 28 alone.
- A specific contract betting on whether Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei would be out by March resolved at 100% after his death, pulling in $45 million in volume.
- Bettors are currently pricing a ceasefire chance at just 4% by March 2 but rising to over half by March’s end.
- Six wallets profited a combined $1.2 million from bets placed just before the strikes, with one wallet turning $61,000 into over $493,000.
Polymarket’s rapid response to geopolitical events allows users to place bets on outcomes such as regime change and military actions in real-time, unlike traditional markets that reopen later.
With contracts like “Will the Iranian regime fall by June?” sitting at a significant probability of over half, traders are actively engaging with these high-stakes predictions.(Source)
