China Issues Second Iran Evacuation Notice

China Issues Second Evacuation Notice Amid Iran Tensions

• China has issued a second emergency evacuation notice for its nationals in Iran, indicating rising tensions.
• The Polymarket contract on a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 trades at 7% YES, down from 8% the previous day.
• The April 30 sub-market remains at 0.5% YES with six days left to resolution.
• Trading volume over the past 24 hours was $392 in USDC, showing limited market reaction to the evacuation notice.
• The market requires $2,981 to move the December 31 contract by five points, indicating stability unless new information arises.

China’s second evacuation notice suggests potential escalation with Iran; however, the Polymarket contract for a US declaration of war remains stable at a low probability. Traders await further developments before reacting significantly.