Iran Blockade Lifting Odds Steady at 86.5%

Trump Threatens Bombing if No Iran Deal by April 21 Ceasefire Expiration

• The ceasefire end market is at 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago, with $5,810 in daily USDC volume.
• A $1,700 trade could shift the ceasefire market by 5 percentage points due to its thin nature.
• The permanent peace deal market has risen to 14.5% YES from 12%, with $267,520 in daily USDC volume.
• Traders expect the ceasefire to hold or be extended without new catalysts like a mediator or meeting confirmation.
• A YES share in the ceasefire end market costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it ends by April 21, indicating low probability.

The decline in the ceasefire end market suggests traders believe the truce may continue past April 21 without new developments. The permanent peace deal market shows more stability with higher trading volume and resistance to sudden changes.