Iran Diplomacy Advances via Pakistan Oman Talks

Iran Engages in Indirect Diplomacy with the US via Pakistan and Oman

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is visiting Pakistan and Oman to facilitate indirect engagement with the US.
• The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21, 2026, is at 100% YES.
• The market for no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 trades at 13% YES, down 4 points recently.
• $27,334 in actual USDC has been traded in the diplomatic meeting market.
• A $141 trade can shift odds by 5 percentage points due to a thin order book.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visits to Pakistan and Oman suggest continued indirect engagement with the US, reducing the likelihood of an imminent ceasefire breakdown. The market reflects this with a decrease in odds for no meeting by June 30.