Iran Economy Strains Amid US-Israeli Strikes

Economic Strain on Iran Amid US-Israeli Strikes and Blockade

• The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has increased to 8.5% YES, up from 8%.
• The June 30 market shows a daily USDC volume of $35,587, with cautious trading activity.
• The April 30 market remains nearly flat at 0.2% YES, indicating skepticism about an imminent collapse.
• The May 31 market decreased to 3.6% YES from 5%, suggesting less chance of near-term regime change.
• The face value of the regime fall market is $423,658, with shallow depth as actual USDC is only $35,587.

US-Israeli strikes and a naval blockade are intensifying economic pressure on Iran, but traders remain cautious about immediate regime change despite increased odds for mid-year shifts.