Iran Reimposes Control Over Hormuz Tanker

Iran Reasserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Fires on Tanker

• Tehran has reimposed control over the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC gunboats firing on a tanker.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 is at 58.5% YES, down from 60% the previous day.
• The market for UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 stands at 7.5% YES, indicating low expectations for immediate British military intervention.
• The market predicting Trump will announce the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 76.5% YES.
• $10,250 in USDC was traded in the April 30 normalization market over the past day, with significant volatility due to thin contracts.

Tehran’s actions have led to decreased confidence in a swift resolution regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization, as reflected by prediction markets and trading activities.