Iran Strait Closure Disrupts Global Oil Transit

Trump’s Threats Intensify Israel-Iran Peace Deal Uncertainty

• The market for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, is priced at 12.5% YES, up from 12% in the last 24 hours.
• The May 31, 2026 sub-market shows a decrease to 4.3% YES from an earlier 6%.
• President Donald Trump has warned Iran of further military attacks if no deal is reached, increasing tensions amid ongoing negotiations.
• The U.S. demands enriched uranium moratoriums and inspections, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and control over the Strait of Hormuz tolls.
• Recent talks are described as productive despite fundamental disagreements remaining between the parties involved.

Tensions rise as President Trump’s threats reduce the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2026, with market pricing reflecting increased military risks. The current ceasefire’s status remains crucial in ongoing negotiations.