IRGC Commanders Rise Iran Power Shift

IRGC Influence Grows as Mojtaba Khamenei’s Control Diminishes in Iran

• Israeli and US officials report Mojtaba Khamenei has lost control, with IRGC commanders taking charge.
• The December 31 leadership change market increased to 39.5% YES, up from 30% a week prior.
• The April 30 contract is priced at 4.5%, while May 31 odds have risen modestly to 15.5%.
• The Iran regime fall market remains low, with April 30 at 0.4% YES and May 31 at 3.6% YES.
• The leadership change market trades $9,612/day in USDC, indicating potential for sharp swings on new information.

Iran’s political landscape is shifting as the IRGC gains influence over Mojtaba Khamenei, reflected by a rise in the December leadership change market to 39.5% YES. The regime fall markets remain stable with low probabilities of instability by May.