Nuclear Tensions: Pakistan Mediates US-Iran Conflict

Pakistan Mediates US-Iran Conflict Amid Ceasefire and Uranium Tensions

• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offers mediation in the US-Iran conflict.
• The probability of Trump announcing an end to the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21, 2026, is at 100% YES.
• The market for the ceasefire ending by April 21, 2026, is fully priced at 100% YES.
• The likelihood of Iran surrendering enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, fell to 2% YES from a previous 6%.
• Market volume across these predictions totals $39,286 in USDC.

Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts are perceived as reinforcing the ceasefire between the US and Iran. However, traders see little chance of a quick resolution regarding Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The market reflects a high certainty of the ceasefire ending by April 21, while optimism for uranium surrender remains low.