Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on October 31, 2026, that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. A New York Times/Siena poll released an hour later showed Ricketts in the lead. The New York Times reported that the user won more than $77,000, but said it was unclear whether they had inside information.
The report described suspicious bets before two recent Times/Siena polls, but the excerpt gives details for only one. It said the user also made similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi. Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating; Kalshi declined to comment.
