Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket favored Democrats to win both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, pricing a sweep at 75% and 75.5%, respectively. Those prices are forecasts, not results: prediction markets had favored the losing candidate in Brazil’s presidential runoff nine days before the US vote.
A Washington Post analysis found that nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on the two platforms, a record for a midterm cycle. In Ohio’s Senate race, both platforms favored Democrat Sherrod Brown despite heavy spending by a crypto-backed group to support his opponent. Brown’s possible role overseeing a committee relevant to crypto regulation remained uncertain.
