Starmer Skips Key Scottish Labour Meeting

Keir Starmer’s Scotland Visit Highlights Labour Party Tensions

• Keir Starmer visited Scotland but did not meet Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, highlighting internal party tensions.
• The market probability of Starmer resigning by June 30, 2026, decreased from 42% to 36.5% following the visit.
• The December 31, 2026 market shows a higher resignation probability at 59.5%, indicating a perceived longer-term threat to his leadership.
• The term structure reveals a significant spread of 26 points between the two contracts over just six months.
• Daily face value for these contracts is $35,517, with actual USDC trades totaling $16,715; a $3,486 trade can shift the June market by five points.

Keir Starmer’s decision not to meet Anas Sarwar during his Scotland visit has impacted prediction markets, reducing the likelihood of his resignation by June 2026 to 36.5%. The December market remains higher at 59.5%, reflecting concerns over his long-term leadership stability.