US Seizes Iranian Ship Escalating Tensions

US Military Seizes Iranian Vessel in Gulf of Oman

• The US military has seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, as announced by Trump.
• The probability of a Gulf State taking military action against Iran by April 30 increased to 9.5% from 4%.
• The April 30 military action market saw $12,163 in daily face value but only $578 in actual USDC traded.
• The April 15 sub-market remains inactive at a mere 0.4% YES probability.
• A single large order could significantly shift the market due to a thin order book.

Following the seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US military, tensions have escalated in the region. However, traders see limited chances for immediate Gulf State intervention, with odds for action remaining low and trading volumes showing no institutional interest.