Gartner predicted on October 14, 2026, that more than 80% of neocloud providers would stop operating independently by 2030. It attributed the forecast to cost pressure and a lack of distinct business models. Gartner also estimated that more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030 if AI providers keep spending at their current pace.
Neocloud shares fell in October 2026. By October 21, CoreWeave shares were down 29% for the month, Nebius was down 27% and IREN was down 32%. Neoclouds rent GPU capacity for AI work; the forecast does not say they will all cease operating.
